Israel, under international pressure, is considering a 48-hour halt to its punishing four-day air campaign on Hamas targets in Gaza to see if Palestinian militants will stop their rocket attacks on southern Israel, Israeli officials said Tuesday. Any offer would be coupled with a threat to send in ground troops if the rocket fire continues.
My Way News - Israel mulls truce offer on Day 4 of Gaza assault
I can’t help but wonder whether this is wise. This operation doesn’t really have a goal. What are you going to do? Reoccupy Gaza? You’ve made it clear that you don’t want to do that. Can’t say I blame you.
So why on Earth launch a major military operation if you don’t have an extremely clear goal and a clear strategy for reaching it? I’m sorry, but I don’t see an end to harassing fire as an “extremely clear goal.”
Why isn’t ending the harassing fire an extremely clear goal? Because it’s harassing fire. Here’s how this is going to go down:
- Hamas stops firing rockets, eventually, because they’re tired of being bombed;
- Israel stands down;
- An uneasy “peace” (really, “quiet”) reigns for a few months;
- A single rocket is fired three months from now;
- Israel is unable to respond with meaningful force because of the international community (and its own citizens) arguing that such a response would be “disproportionate” (it would be);
- Another rocket is fired a month later;
- Over the course of three to six months the rate of firing increases to three or four rockets a month with no fatalities;
- Israel decides to launch another major combat operations to end rocket launches;
- Cycle repeats.
The only way to end cycles like this is with strong leadership and meaningful concessions, from both sides. Unfortunately the Israelis don’t have strong leadership, and Hamas’ leadership isn’t exactly thrilled with the prospect of recognizing Israel’s right to exist, much less really negotiating. Oy.
